Learn
IntelliRisk
A leverage survival test — the odds a position would have been liquidated, from real volatility.
Loading…
About IntelliRisk
Leverage is where accounts die, and a number like ‘25×’ hides how dangerous it really is. IntelliRisk takes a coin's actual price history, slides your holding period across all of it, and counts how often the move against you would have hit the liquidation distance — for both a long and a short. Instead of an abstract multiplier you get a visceral answer: ‘at 25×, a 3-day hold was liquidated 68% of the time, usually within 9 hours.’ It's built to make the risk concrete before you take it, not after. Runs in your browser.
How to use
- Enter a coin, a leverage and a holding period
- Run the survival test across the coin's real history
- Read the liquidation odds and typical time-to-liquidation, long and short
- Adjust leverage until the odds are ones you'd actually accept
FAQ
How is liquidation estimated?
It assumes isolated margin and liquidation at roughly the 1÷leverage adverse move (e.g. ~4% at 25×), then checks, for every historical window of your holding period, whether the low (for a long) or high (for a short) reached that level. It ignores maintenance margin, fees and funding, so real liquidation is slightly easier than shown.
Is this predicting the future?
No. It's a historical stress test — how this leverage would have fared over the past. Volatility can exceed anything in the record, so treat high survival rates with humility, not confidence.
Why show long and short?
A coin that grinds up can be brutal for shorts and gentle for longs (or the reverse). Seeing both sides shows how directional the liquidation risk is.